China Faces Critical Germanium Shortage by 2040, Recycling Offers Partial Solution

A new study from Tsinghua University warns of a potential germanium supply crisis in China, projecting significant challenges for high-tech industries relying on this critical metal. Researchers predict China's germanium demand will surge to between 164–187 tons by 2050, driven primarily by infrared optics and solar cell technologies.

Currently, China produces 68% of the world's refined germanium, primarily through zinc refining and coal ash processing. However, global recovery rates remain dismally low at 3%–5%, creating substantial vulnerabilities in the supply chain. The study suggests that by 2040, a critical shortage could emerge if current production and recycling methods are not dramatically improved.

The research identifies infrared optics and fiber optics as the most promising sectors for germanium recycling, potentially representing nearly 70% of total scrap volume by 2050. Despite this potential, current recycling efforts are projected to address only 30% of anticipated demand, leaving a significant supply gap.

Lead researcher Dr. Xianlai Zeng emphasized the metal's critical nature, noting that many high-tech applications lack viable substitutes. The study recommends enhanced extraction technologies, strategic resource management, and policy interventions such as tax incentives to support specialized recycling enterprises.

The findings carry broader implications for global technology sectors, suggesting that without immediate and innovative approaches to germanium recovery, multiple industries could face significant disruptions. The research underscores the growing importance of circular economy principles in managing critical metal resources.