Holiday Shoppers to Increase Spending by 6% in 2025, Embracing AI and Value-Driven Purchases

Holiday shoppers are projected to spend at least 6 percent more this season, averaging up to $1,077 per household compared to last year, according to Simon-Kucher's comprehensive 7th Annual Holiday Shopping Report. The study, which provides data-driven insights into consumer retail macroeconomic trends, indicates consumers are operating with stricter budgets while shifting focus toward quality and value over price across most categories.

Shikha Jain, Partner and Head of Consumer and Retail for North America for Simon-Kucher, emphasized the significance of this year's findings, stating that consumers are not seeking a one-size-fits-all discount strategy. Retailers can meet consumer expectations and maintain profitability by balancing promotions with differentiated discount approaches. Most consumers expect discounts of up to 40 percent, with discounts up to 25 percent remaining common across various categories.

Spending patterns show category-specific behavior, with more than 50 percent of consumers spending over $100 in high-value categories such as household appliances, home improvement, and electronics. Jain noted that holiday sales will grow in 2025 through meaningful discounts, with consumers acting decisively to secure deals that may not remain available.

Purchasing behavior reveals that 66 percent of early holiday shoppers favor Black Friday and other sales events, beginning as early as the 4th of July through Super Saturday. Social media serves as a source of inspiration and influencer ideas for 64 percent of shoppers. Regarding returns, three out of four consumers return 10 percent or less of their purchases, indicating a trend toward more deliberate buying decisions.

Max Walter, Director of Consumer and Retail for North America for Simon-Kucher, observed that today's holiday shopper plans early, seeks social media inspiration, and expects smooth experiences that minimize returns. The report highlights the mainstream adoption of AI in holiday shopping, with 54 percent of consumers using AI for shopping support, 23 percent for deal tracking, and 27 percent for price comparisons. However, older generations prefer brainstorming their own gift ideas and choose not to use AI, reflecting generational differences in technology adoption.

Tariff disruptions are affecting consumer behavior, with 44 percent expecting at least a moderate impact on holiday shopping and 19 percent opting out due to budget constraints and commercialization. Shoppers use an average of 2.4 payment methods, with 45 percent preferring debit cards. Walter added that tariffs create financial hardship for both essential and discretionary goods, suggesting that businesses offering thoughtful, value-driven initiatives will perform better.

Compared to 2019 trends, most consumers still expect discount sales of up to 25 percent and consider Black Friday the best sales event. Amazon continues to dominate the retail landscape, while social media platforms like Instagram and TikTok gain traction for browsing. Jain shared that consumers value transparency, convenience, and shopping experiences emphasizing loyalty and quality over discounts.

The complete study findings are available at https://www.simon-kucher.com/en. Simon-Kucher's Holiday Shopping Report has become a trusted resource for retailers and consumer brands, with past predictions closely mirroring actual outcomes. The study was conducted between July 25-31, 2025, through an anonymous survey of 1,513 US consumers, analyzed with respect to US population distribution by household income level to accurately represent the average consumer.