ITS Logistics Forecasts Inland Freight Congestion and Rising Cargo Theft Risks for 2025 Peak Season

ITS Logistics released its September US Port/Rail Ramp Freight Index, indicating that import volumes dipped slightly in August, suggesting the traditional late Q3 to early Q4 surge in drayage activity will not materialize for the 2025 peak season. Front-loaded freight is now moving inland, causing congestion in key rail lanes from coastal areas and boosting domestic truckload activity in regions including Southern California, Dallas, Chicago, and Atlanta. This shift requires shippers to focus on protecting inventory from rising cargo theft rates during the hectic holiday season.

U.S. container imports for August totaled 2,519,722 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), representing a 1.6% year-over-year increase but a 3.9% decline from July's near-record highs. The National Retail Federation projects that tariff policies will result in a 5.6% decrease in total inbound volume for 2025, potentially leading to a 17.5% drop in the final months of the year. ITS Logistics confirms that demand dips observed in August will likely continue through October, affecting supply chain planning and operations.

These declining import volumes coincide with significant regulatory changes affecting supply chain professionals. August 29 marked the end of the de minimis exemption, subjecting 92% of U.S. cargo shipments to new duties and causing nearly a dozen countries and global shipping companies to temporarily pause shipments to the U.S. On the same day, a U.S. appeals court ruled most tariffs issued by former President Donald Trump illegal, with the Supreme Court's final decision expected in November. A stay on the tariff ruling remains until October 14, when the next phase of USTR port fees on Chinese vessel owners and operators is scheduled to take effect, adding further uncertainty for companies preparing for the 2026 RFP season.

Freight already in the domestic market faces additional challenges. Large volumes of front-loaded inventory moving inland are expected to cause congestion in key rail lanes for several months due to increases in ocean containers and intermodal equipment. ITS Logistics advises shippers with time-sensitive shipments to onboard additional drayage and cross-dock capacity to enhance flexibility and avoid delays, ensuring smoother logistics operations during this congested period.

Organized cargo theft and freight fraud have reached record-high levels across both rail and trucking sectors. According to the Association of American Railroads (AAR), theft on railways surged 40% in 2024, costing Class I rail operators over $100 million. Verisk CargoNet reported a 13% increase in truck-based fraud incidents in Q2 2025, citing rises in organized crime and targeting of consumer goods. These trends highlight the critical need for shippers to partner with providers who employ strong relationships and innovative strategies to secure freight across all transportation modes. For comprehensive insights, the full ITS Logistics US Port/Rail Ramp Freight Index is available at https://www.itslogistics.com/index.

In peak season, stolen inventory and fraud incidents create delays that cost shippers significantly more than the value of lost loads. Partnering with carriers offering real-time visibility and rigorous fraud-prevention standards is essential to protect freight from port to final destination, ensuring supply chain integrity during high-risk periods. ITS Logistics provides network transportation solutions across North America, including drayage and intermodal services in 22 coastal ports and 30 rail ramps, supporting distribution to 95% of the U.S. population within two days.