Deloitte Forecasts 9% Ecommerce Growth for 2025 Holiday Season

The 2025 holiday shopping season is expected to deliver steady growth for ecommerce despite an anticipated slowdown in overall retail sales compared to the previous year. According to a new forecast from Deloitte, online holiday sales between November 2025 and January 2026 could grow between 7% and 9% compared to the same period in 2024. This projection suggests ecommerce sales could reach between $305 billion and $310.7 billion, continuing the trend of online shopping consistently outpacing total retail sales growth year after year.

The forecast indicates that ecommerce platforms operated by companies such as Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE: BABA) are preparing to maximize benefits from the upcoming shopping season. The sustained growth pattern highlights the ongoing shift in consumer behavior toward digital shopping channels, even as traditional retail faces challenges.

This projection matters significantly for retailers, investors, and consumers alike. For businesses, it underscores the critical importance of robust ecommerce strategies and digital infrastructure to capture holiday spending. Companies that fail to adapt to the digital shopping trend risk losing market share during the most profitable shopping period of the year. The forecast also suggests that consumer confidence in online shopping remains strong, with shoppers increasingly preferring the convenience and variety offered by digital marketplaces.

The implications extend beyond individual retailers to the broader economy. Ecommerce growth drives demand for logistics, packaging, digital payment systems, and technology infrastructure. The projected $305-310.7 billion in sales represents substantial economic activity that supports jobs across multiple sectors. For consumers, the continued growth of ecommerce means more choices, competitive pricing, and enhanced shopping convenience during the busy holiday season.

This forecast from Deloitte serves as a valuable indicator for market analysts and investors tracking retail trends. The consistent outperformance of ecommerce compared to overall retail sales demonstrates the structural shift in how consumers shop, a trend accelerated by technological advancements and changing consumer preferences. As the holiday season approaches, this data provides crucial insights for strategic planning across the retail industry.