Three ASX Oil Stocks Positioned for Potential Rebound Amid Global Supply Constraints

Oil prices have climbed to approximately $65 per barrel from recent lows of $55, driven by tightening global markets and the U.S. government's commitment to replenish depleted strategic reserves. Simultaneously, sanctions targeting Russian oil exports and potential secondary tariffs on nations including China, Turkey, and India threaten to constrict global supply further. Wealth Within analyst Pedro Benales noted that both supply and demand factors currently support higher prices, creating what he described as ideal conditions for targeting quality Australian oil producers with strong fundamentals and solid technical setups.

Karoon Energy (ASX: KAR) demonstrates one of the most compelling technical structures among ASX oil stocks. Following an extended correction, the company's share price has established firm support near $1.25, suggesting a potential trend reversal. Analysis indicates Karoon has formed a strong base pattern aligning with historical low-volume accumulation zones, with increased trading volume and renewed investor interest signaling early reversal indicators. The next major upside targets are positioned at $2.68 with potential extension to $4.80-$5.00 based on historical cycle peaks. Filip Tortevski of Wealth Within emphasized that while macro factors provide context, chart analysis reveals momentum poised for upward movement.

Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS), Australia's largest oil and gas producer, maintains firm technical support near $20 with clear resistance structure around $27. This $7 trading corridor has defined price action since early 2024 and could determine the next breakout phase. Pedro Benales observed that Woodside's trading volume has spiked around these key levels, noting that a confirmed break above $27 could target the $38-$40 zone, signaling a return to longer-term bullish momentum. Tortevski cautioned that simply attempting to time market bottoms with large-cap names like Woodside carries inherent risks without structured trading approaches incorporating clear entry rules, stop-losses, and exit management strategies.

Viva Energy (ASX: VEA) has emerged as an unexpected contender despite mixed third-quarter 2025 operating results. While retail fuel sales declined during the period, refining margins surged 76% with indications of stronger fourth-quarter performance as Geelong Refinery operations normalize. The company's technical structure presents a more optimistic outlook, having established a stable multi-year base around $1.75 - a level that provided support in 2018, 2021, and again in 2025. The next key resistance area sits near $2.60, representing potential upside exceeding 45% if current momentum persists. Increasing participation volume suggests institutional activity ahead of anticipated fourth-quarter strength. Benales highlighted that charts typically anticipate market movements while fundamentals lag, meaning investors waiting for positive headlines may miss optimal entry points.

The analysis underscores that significant profits in energy investing derive from precision entry timing and disciplined risk management rather than emotional reactions to market news. From small-cap opportunities like Karoon to established producers like Woodside and recovery plays such as Viva Energy, these technical setups may represent some of 2025's most promising trading opportunities. However, successful execution requires the ability to interpret price action independently of headline-driven market noise. For investors seeking to develop these analytical capabilities, educational resources like those available through https://www.wealthwithin.com.au can provide structured approaches to market analysis and trading strategy development.