U.S. eCommerce Projected to Reach $2.08 Trillion by 2030 as Mobile and AI Transform Retail Landscape

The U.S. eCommerce market continues to expand at a record pace, driven by the convergence of mobile technology, generative AI, and new retail infrastructure designed for speed and personalization. According to Mordor Intelligence, U.S. eCommerce is projected to grow from $1.25 trillion in 2025 to $2.08 trillion by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of 10.7 percent. This substantial growth trajectory signals a fundamental shift in how consumers interact with brands and make purchasing decisions.

Mitch Gould, Founder and CEO of Nutritional Products International (NPI), emphasized that current market developments represent more than just numerical growth. "What's happening now is not just growth in numbers — it's a complete redefinition of how consumers discover, evaluate, and buy products," Gould stated. "Mobile and AI are merging convenience with intelligence, and that's changing the entire distribution playbook." This transformation has significant implications for brands seeking to maintain relevance in an increasingly digital marketplace.

Mobile commerce now drives the majority of online checkouts in the United States, while generative AI is improving conversion rates by aligning search intent with product discovery according to Mordor Intelligence. The integration of these technologies has contributed to eCommerce sales climbing 7.5% year-over-year in 2024, reaching $1.1 trillion, with online sales now representing 16.3% of all U.S. retail sales according to Digital Commerce 360 and the U.S. Census Bureau. These statistics underscore the accelerating shift toward digital commerce channels.

"Generative AI is bridging the gap between awareness and action," Gould explained. "It's helping consumers find what they actually want — and helping brands tell their story in ways that resonate faster and more authentically." This technological advancement represents a critical opportunity for brands to enhance customer engagement and drive conversion rates through more personalized shopping experiences.

The retail landscape continues to consolidate around major powerhouses, with Amazon maintaining dominant market position. The eCommerce giant holds roughly 40% of the U.S. eCommerce market, nearly triple the combined online sales of its next three competitors. Meanwhile, Walmart is quickly closing the gap, reporting 23% year-over-year growth in online sales in 2024 and more than $120 billion in digital revenue. "Amazon, Walmart, and emerging players like Temu are setting the standard for logistics and personalization," Gould noted. "But their growth also opens the door for smaller, high-quality brands that can prove readiness — from compliance to category alignment — before they go to market."

Through its 'Evolution of Distribution' model detailed at https://www.nutricompany.com, NPI prepares international and domestic brands to compete across both digital and physical channels. The system combines regulatory and operational readiness, retail positioning, relationship-driven introductions, and post-placement support to sustain long-term success. This comprehensive approach addresses the complex requirements of modern retail distribution.

Gould emphasized that success in today's eCommerce environment requires sophisticated coordination across multiple channels. "Success in eCommerce today is about orchestration," he stated. "You can't treat online and retail as separate worlds anymore. The winners are those who synchronize data, fulfillment, and storytelling across every platform consumers use." This integrated strategy will become increasingly crucial as the market approaches the projected $2 trillion milestone by 2030, representing both significant opportunities and challenges for brands navigating the evolving retail ecosystem.