While political headlines focus on tariffs, Los Angeles real estate expert Courtney Poulos identifies more fundamental economic forces shaping the housing market. The founder and CEO of ACME Real Estate challenges the popular industry narrative of "2026: The Great Housing Reset," suggesting that interest rates and COVID-era pricing dynamics represent the actual constraints on market movement.
Poulos questions whether 2026 represents a genuine reset or industry wishful thinking, noting that recent tariffs have added approximately $17,500 to new home costs while broader housing reforms remain undefined. In her Los Angeles market, where new construction isn't the dominant housing stock, she reports that contractors have not seen significant tariff impacts. She is currently selling a new construction project where the developer confirms tariffs haven't meaningfully affected costs.
The real constraint on market activity stems from pandemic-era economic policies, according to Poulos. She explains that trillions of dollars printed and pushed into the economy during COVID-19, without plans for housing price impacts, created affordability challenges beyond tariff effects. The current market faces a fundamental mismatch between sellers' expectations based on COVID-boom purchases and buyers' affordability at current interest rates.
"People who bought houses during COVID bought with cheap money, low interest rates, and pushed the values to a place where, when interest rates get higher now, it makes it less easy to sell that house," Poulos explains. This creates what she describes as a "lock" where sellers face potential losses on homes purchased with sub-3% mortgages, while buyers cannot afford those same prices at 6-7% rates, resulting in stagnated inventory.
Poulos believes solutions lie in creative financing options and realistic rate adjustments rather than dramatic market resets. She points to rate buy-downs, where developers prepay mortgage rates with builder credits, allowing buyers to experience lower rates for initial years or the loan's lifetime. She has recently observed rates in the fives on seven-year jumbo adjustable-rate mortgages, suggesting that such rates could motivate hesitant market participants.
"When you have interest rates in the fives, all those people who are sitting on the edges are going to start making moves," Poulos says. The challenge involves balancing rate reductions enough to unlock inventory without triggering inflation through excessively low rates.
Contrary to doom-and-gloom narratives, Poulos reports cautiously optimistic market signals. She observes buyers returning who weren't active in fall markets, with both buyers tired of waiting and sellers willing to adjust prices to facilitate deals. A recent property received 19 offers, selling $300,000 over asking rather than the typical $400,000 premium, indicating buyers maintain ceilings based on borrowing costs.
"There has been an uptick in buyer enthusiasm this fall, even into November, which is typically the beginning of the quiet time," Poulos observes. She hosts "The Clean Close" podcast covering real estate industry news and trends, where she explores these market dynamics in greater detail.
Regarding the 2026 reset narrative, Poulos states, "I don't see the truth in that sentiment, but I do feel optimism in our market." What she witnesses represents neither reset, crash, nor boom, but rather markets adjusting as participants work with current realities rather than waiting for perfect conditions. With buyers returning, sellers becoming more realistic, and rates gradually improving, Poulos emphasizes the importance of housing accessibility for wealth building.
"I'm rooting for us to be able to continue to experience the American dream because I believe it's the number one way to build wealth for people who are not already wealthy," she concludes, suggesting that current market realities may prove more constructive than dramatic narrative predictions.
