Following the Reserve Bank of Australia's first rate hike in over two years, major banks including CBA and Westpac have joined NAB in forecasting another 0.25% increase as early as May, potentially raising the cash rate to 4.10%. This anticipated movement creates a pressing timeline for mortgage holders, particularly in Sydney, where financial advisors are reporting significant refinancing opportunities.
Nick Lissikatos from Trelos Finance emphasizes the substantial savings available, stating that even modest rate reductions can save borrowers tens of thousands of dollars over a typical mortgage term. Across their client base, these savings collectively amount to hundreds of thousands. Lissikatos, who specializes in helping Sydney families navigate complex refinancing decisions, notes that the current market presents both challenges and opportunities, with major lenders already pricing in potential rate movements. Borrowers who secure competitive rates now may be significantly better positioned than those who delay.
This refinancing activity unfolds against a backdrop of forecast property price growth across Australia. ANZ expects capital city home prices to rise 4.8% in 2026, though trajectories vary significantly by location. Sydney and Melbourne are tipped to rise 2-3%, while smaller capitals are expected to outperform amid very tight supply conditions. Analysis by Canstar suggests median house prices in Brisbane and Perth could rise by more than $100,000 in 2026 alone, highlighting the regional disparities shaping the Australian housing market.
"What borrowers need to understand is that their mortgage rate directly impacts their capacity to build equity and weather market changes," Lissikatos explains. "On Sydney's higher property values, even a 0.25% rate reduction represents serious money over the life of a loan." For Sydney homeowners, the combination of potential rate rises and continuing property price growth creates a complex decision-making landscape. While Sydney's forecast 2-3% price growth is more modest compared to some interstate markets, the harbour city's high median prices mean homeowners are managing substantial assets that warrant careful financial planning.
Lissikatos notes that many Sydney borrowers are discovering significant rate disparities between their current mortgage and what's available in the market. "Lender loyalty doesn't always translate to competitive pricing," he says. "We're regularly finding clients who could be saving thousands annually by refinancing, often without even realising better rates were available." The savings being generated through Trelos Finance reflect a broader shift in borrower behavior, with Australians becoming more proactive about managing their largest financial commitment.
As the major banks align on expectations of a May rate rise to 4.10%, the window for securing advantageous refinancing terms may be narrowing. With the RBA's rate trajectory and property price forecasts both pointing to continued market movement throughout 2026, Lissikatos expects demand for strategic refinancing advice to remain strong. "Borrowers who understand the numbers and act decisively are the ones who'll be best positioned, regardless of which direction rates move next."
