The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) has released its 1Q26 Export Confidence Index, revealing a more cautious outlook among Hong Kong exporters in the first quarter of 2026. This moderation comes despite strong export performance in recent months, reflecting concerns over ongoing global trade and economic uncertainties. The Current Performance Index stood at 46.5, while the Expectation Index registered 46.9, both showing moderate declines from previous readings.
Bruce Pang, HKTDC Director of Research, noted that the outlook for many of Hong Kong's major markets, including the ASEAN bloc and the Chinese Mainland, has moderated due to geopolitical developments. "Hong Kong's trade prospects should stay positive, yet remain cautious, pending the further easing of global geopolitical conflicts," Pang stated. The full research findings are available in the HKTDC Export Confidence Index 1Q26 report.
Despite the overall softening, several key sectors demonstrated notable resilience. The jewellery sector rallied impressively, with its Current reading climbing to 57.1 and its Expectation reading rising to 56.0, supported by robust sales and sizeable new orders. The clothing sector also showed considerable improvement, with its Current Index rising to 52.1 and its Expectation Index increasing to 53.4. In contrast, sentiment among electronics exporters weakened, with a Current reading of 44.9 and an Expectation reading of 45.6, signalling disruptions over the Chinese New Year period.
Trade value expectations remained relatively steady, with the Trade Value Sub-Index staying near the neutral threshold. The Current reading was 50.9 and the Expectation reading was 49.1, suggesting that unit prices are expected to hold firm in the coming months. Both the Current and Expected Inventory Sub-Index rose above 60, indicating inventory rundown amid growing shipments in the early months of the year. Cost pressures showed signs of stabilising, with the Cost Sub-Index improving significantly despite remaining in negative territory.
A thematic assessment of Hong Kong exporters' cross-border e-commerce business revealed significant engagement with this growing sales channel. The findings showed that 46% of respondents were already engaged in cross-border e-commerce, while a further 20% plan to enter the sector within the coming year. Among companies already engaged in cross-border e-commerce, the Chinese Mainland ranked as the leading e-commerce sales destination at 24%, followed by the EU27 & UK at 17% and Canada & the US at 15%. The ASEAN bloc at 14% continued to emerge as a promising market with notable growth potential.
Kenneth Lee, HKTDC Section Head of Special Project & Business Advisory, emphasized the strategic importance of market diversification and e-commerce adoption. "Market diversification remains a key strategy for Hong Kong traders to mitigate risks. At the same time, more companies are leveraging e-commerce channels to boost sales and enhance business sustainability amid an uncertain external environment," Lee said. Additional research resources can be found on the HKTDC Research website.
The survey fieldwork was conducted in January and February 2026, meaning the impact of recent conflicts in the Middle East was not factored into the results. The findings suggest that while Hong Kong exporters face headwinds from global uncertainties, strategic adaptation through sectoral focus and digital channel expansion may help navigate the challenging trade landscape. The moderate sentiment reflects both immediate caution and longer-term resilience in fundamental demand, particularly for electronics and other consumer sectors.
