Death rates from valvular heart disease among U.S. adults ages 65 and older have reversed a nearly two-decade decline, rising from 104 to more than 109 deaths per 100,000 people between 2018 and 2023, according to independent, preliminary research presented at the American Heart Association’s Scientific Sessions 2026. The findings, which are not yet peer-reviewed, project that death rates will remain around 109.2 per 100,000 through 2040 rather than continuing the previous downward trend.
The study analyzed data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s WONDER database, covering more than 1.2 million heart valve disease-related deaths from 1999 to 2023. After reaching a low just before the pandemic, death rates increased and reached 109.2 per 100,000 in 2023. The burden was highest among men (124.7 vs. 103.1 per 100,000 for women), non-Hispanic white adults (122.4 per 100,000), adults ages 85 and older, and residents of nonmetropolitan areas (120.5 vs. 110.1 per 100,000).
“The decades-long decline in deaths from heart valve disease has stopped,” said study author Hritvik Jain, M.D., a resident physician at Allegheny General Hospital in Pittsburgh. “As the U.S. population continues to age, we need to focus on earlier detection, timely treatment and equitable access to specialized valve care, particularly for the oldest adults and those living in rural communities.”
The implications are significant. According to the American Heart Association’s 2026 Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics, more than 80 million people worldwide live with heart valve disease, and in the U.S. it contributes to more than 57,000 deaths each year. The study’s projection of sustained elevated mortality suggests that without intervention, the aging population will face a growing burden of deaths from a condition that is often treatable.
Researchers used Joinpoint regression software to assess trends and ARIMA models to forecast mortality through 2040. They also found that while death rates improved for newer generations in their late 60s, those gains did not continue into very old age; at age 85 and older, newer generations had higher death rates than earlier generations at the same age.
“The recent reversal of progress in valvular heart disease mortality is especially alarming in light of the substantial advances in treatment achieved over the past decade and a half,” said Sreekanth Vemulapalli, M.D., a volunteer member of the American Heart Association’s Target: Aortic Stenosis™ Scientific Advisory Group. “This disconnect between therapeutic innovation and population-level outcomes highlights the critical need for the American Heart Association’s quality improvement and educational initiatives to improve awareness, care delivery and patient outcomes.”
The Association has launched initiatives to address the gap, including the 2025 Heart Valve Initiative, a national effort to ensure earlier identification and treatment. The study’s limitations include reliance on death-certificate data, which may contain coding inaccuracies and cannot capture disease severity or treatment history.
The findings were presented at Scientific Sessions 2026, a premier global exchange of cardiovascular science, and the abstract is available online. As the U.S. population ages, the reversal in heart valve disease mortality signals a need for renewed focus on early detection and equitable access to care to prevent further increases in deaths.
