The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) has upwardly revised its 2026 export forecast to year-on-year growth of above 20%, citing stronger-than-expected performance since the start of the year and sustained momentum in global demand for technology products. The revised outlook, announced in the 2026 Mid-Year Export Review and Outlook, reflects the resilience of Hong Kong's trade amid an accelerating global AI cycle.
The HKTDC Export Confidence Index (2Q26), also released today, showed improvement in both key indicators. The Current Performance Index rose to 51.0, while the Expectation Index reached 52.4, both rebounding above the 50 threshold. This indicates improved exporter sentiment, driven by evolving US trade policies and ongoing geopolitical developments, according to the HKTDC.
Bruce Pang, HKTDC Director of Research, said the recent upturn has been supported by resilient regional trade amid the AI-driven technology cycle, despite lingering uncertainties in the Middle East. "Overall, the outlook for many of Hong Kong's major markets has improved, with the Chinese Mainland and ASEAN remaining the most promising. Sentiment towards the US market has also strengthened following the Xi-Trump meeting in mid-May and recent trade policy developments," Pang added.
In the first five months of 2026, Hong Kong's exports recorded a robust 36.2% year-on-year increase, underpinned by strong demand for electronics amid the accelerating global AI cycle. Electronics remained the key growth driver, accounting for more than 70% of Hong Kong's total exports, with semiconductors and intermediate items putting in a particularly strong performance. The proliferation of AI applications, including generative AI and enterprise digitalisation, has triggered a new wave of demand for high-performance chips, ICT equipment, and related components. This has significantly boosted Hong Kong's re-export trade, particularly to the Chinese Mainland, ASEAN production bases, and major developed markets.
While demand has remained strong, a notable portion of recent growth has been driven by price. Tight supply conditions in the semiconductor sector have led to significant increases in component prices, especially for memory chips and advanced processors. Wing Chu, HKTDC Deputy Director of Research, explained: "The export value of key electronic components has risen faster than order volumes, with price increases amplifying overall growth. However, as production capacity expands and supply constraints gradually ease, semiconductor prices are expected to moderate. This may lead to some softening in export value growth over the longer-term, even as underlying demand for AI-enabled devices and infrastructure remains resilient."
Hong Kong continues to play a critical role as a regional trading hub, facilitating the flow of electronic parts and semi-manufactured goods across Asian supply chains and into global markets. This intermediary role has been a key factor in the city's strong export performance and is expected to remain a source of resilience even as component prices normalise over the medium term.
Kenneth Lee, HKTDC Section Head of Special Projects & Business Advisory, noted that steady overseas demand for consumer products has provided further support, reflecting the resilience of global consumption in recent months. Looking ahead, several uncertainties could weigh on trade performance, including geopolitical tensions (particularly in the Middle East), volatility in global energy prices, and policy uncertainties such as evolving US trade measures and rising protectionism among major trading partners.
For more details, the full reports are available on the HKTDC Research website.
