HKTDC Forecasts 8-9% Hong Kong Export Growth for 2026, Driven by Sustained AI Product Demand

The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) has forecast that Hong Kong's exports will grow by 8-9% in 2026, according to its annual Export Outlook report released today. This projection follows better-than-anticipated 2025 export performance and is driven primarily by sustained robust demand for artificial intelligence-related electronics products. The electronics sector accounts for more than 70% of Hong Kong's total export value, making this trend particularly significant for the territory's economic outlook.

According to the recently released HKTDC 4Q25 Export Confidence Index, 53.2% of exporters identified rising demand for AI and new technology-related electronic consumer goods as the factor most likely to boost their 2026 business. This optimism is notable given the high year-on-year comparison base from 2025, when many exporters frontloaded orders to complete shipments before anticipated US tariffs. The full Export Outlook report is available at https://research.hktdc.com/en/article/MjE4ODc2Mzk2Nw.

Irina Fan, Director of HKTDC Research, noted that while 2025 was a year of heightened uncertainty, 2026 should bring greater clarity on global trade. "With the Chinese Mainland and the US having come to a trade agreement in November, US tariffs are no longer among Hong Kong exporters' three biggest 2026 concerns," Fan stated. However, she acknowledged that uncertainties remain as US imports from different countries face varying tariff levels, prompting business leaders worldwide to reorganize activities to optimize cost advantages.

Fan explained the implications for the Asia-Pacific region: "Chinese Mainland exports to the US will be subject to a 20% reciprocal tariff rate until November 2026. This comparatively low additional tariff puts China-based suppliers, many with more mature and highly productive supply chains, on par with their Southeast Asia counterparts, while giving them a significant advantage over any country subject to a higher tariff rate."

The HKTDC Export Confidence Index 4Q25, also released today, supports the positive outlook. Both the Current Performance Index (51.4) and the Expectation Index (51.9) remain above the 50-point watershed level, indicating anticipated export growth. Detailed findings from the quarterly survey can be accessed at https://research.hktdc.com/en/article/MjE4ODYyNTQwNw.

Kenneth Lee, Head of the HKTDC Research's Special Project and Business Advisory Section, commented on expansion plans: "When it comes to expansion plans over the next two-year period, Asia remains very much the focus. For 42.0% of respondents, the Chinese Mainland was the highest priority market, followed by the rest of Asia (30.3%) and the ASEAN bloc (18.9%). By industry, exporters in almost every sector saw scaling up their activities on the Chinese Mainland as their priority."

The Market Expectation Sub-Index shows significant growth potential for the Chinese Mainland (57.2) and the ASEAN bloc (57.0), while the US rating declined to 38.0 due to ongoing trade environment uncertainties. Among individual industries, Jewellery (54.8), Electronics (52.4), Timepieces (51.6), and Equipment/Materials (51.1) all show expansionary expectations for the year ahead.

Despite overall positive sentiments, the survey identifies potential challenges, including rising labour and production costs (53.9%), growing logistics challenges (38.8%), and declining overseas orders due to general economic slowdown (38.2%). These factors could impact the realization of the projected growth, though the foundation provided by AI product demand and improved trade clarity appears solid. Additional research resources are available through the https://research.hktdc.com/en/ portal.