BHP Chief Financial Officer Vandita Pant said the international copper market could enter a sustained supply deficit from 2028, with the shortfall equivalent to the output of eight to ten mines the size of Escondida, the world's largest copper producer. Speaking at the FT Metals and Mining Summit in London, Pant explained that the gap reflects the increase in annual supply needed by the mid-2030s to satisfy growing consumption.
Declining production from existing deposits is already pressuring supply, making new mine development necessary to maintain output even before future demand growth is considered. Traditional sources of consumption, including population growth, industrial development and urbanization, are increasingly being joined by expanding digital infrastructure, artificial intelligence, electricity network investment and the global shift toward cleaner energy. Projections show annual global copper demand rising to more than 50 million metric tons by 2050, with data centers alone potentially consuming roughly 3 million metric tons per year over the same period.
Pant distinguished the anticipated long-term supply gap from immediate market shortages, noting that temporary imbalances can develop when mining companies fail to meet production targets. Recent mine disruptions and operational difficulties have already weighed on output, while copper concentrate availability has become increasingly constrained. The International Copper Study Group recently lowered its forecast for global mine production growth to 1.3% for the year, reflecting downward revisions for Indonesia, China and Chile, though it expects growth to strengthen to over 3% in 2027.
Pant also noted that near-term consumption could fluctuate with expectations for AI-driven demand and investment activity, but maintained that short-term movements do not alter BHP's longer-term supply and demand outlook. BHP, the world's largest copper producer, has been expanding its focus on the metal, which accounted for over 50% of its underlying EBITDA for the first time in the 2025/26 financial year. The company expects internally developed projects to increase attributable copper output to approximately 2 million metric tons by 2035, targeting average annual growth of around 5% in copper-equivalent production between the 2026/27 and 2034/35 financial years.
Planned growth initiatives include expansions at Copper South Australia and Escondida, as well as development of the Vicuna joint venture and the Resolution project in the U.S. If the predicted structural shortage materializes, entities such as Numa Numa Resources Inc. could benefit from added demand and rising prices if their exploration and development efforts reach production level. The outlook underscores the challenges facing global supply chains as electrification and digitalization accelerate, and it highlights the strategic importance of copper for the energy transition. MiningNewsWire, a specialized communications platform focused on the global mining and resources sectors, is one of 75+ brands within the Dynamic Brand Portfolio @ IBN, delivering access to a vast network of wire solutions via InvestorWire, article and editorial syndication to 5,000+ outlets, press release enhancement, social media distribution, and a full array of tailored corporate communications solutions. Please see full terms of use and disclaimers on the MiningNewsWire website applicable to all content provided by MNW, wherever published or re-published: https://www.MiningNewsWire.com/Disclaimer.
