Aemetis Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results with Expanding Dairy RNG Platform and Policy Tailwinds

Aemetis, Inc. reported third-quarter 2025 revenue of $59.2 million, representing a $7.0 million sequential increase driven by India OMC orders and improved California ethanol pricing and volumes. The company's dairy renewable natural gas platform showed substantial progress with twelve operating digesters producing 114,000 MMBtu during the quarter and generating approximately $4.0 million in revenue. This performance was supported by the full monetization of seven newly approved Low Carbon Fuel Standard pathways through biogas sales.

The company has signed equipment and installation contracts totaling $57 million year-to-date across its dairy RNG and Mechanical Vapor Recompression projects. Current capacity is expected to reach 550,000 MMBtus by year-end with further expansion projected to 1.0 million MMBtus by fiscal year 2027. Aemetis has established multiple monetization avenues for energy production, including sales of RNG molecules, D3 Renewable Identification Numbers, and Section 45Z production tax credits, creating diversified recurring cash generation streams.

Through its dairy RNG business, Aemetis is planning an initial sale of approximately $20 million in Section 45Z and Section 48 credits following the September completion of the multi-dairy biogas digester. Management indicated that signed contracts and pathway approvals will enable recurring monetization moving forward, with 45Z monetization expected to become a recurring quarterly revenue item beginning in the fourth quarter of 2025. The company also advanced commercial execution through agreements for hydrogen sulfide removal, compression, pipeline, and related equipment as part of 2025 contracting activities.

In the California Ethanol segment, Aemetis executed an Engineering, Procurement and Construction agreement with NPL to install a $30 million Mechanical Vapor Recompression system at the Keyes plant. The project, scheduled for completion in the second quarter of 2026, is projected to generate $32 million in incremental annual cash flow through approximately 80% lower natural gas usage, higher LCFS revenues from double-digit carbon intensity reduction, and increased transferable 45Z credits. California policy developments strengthened further with Governor Newsom signing AB30, which immediately allows statewide E15 sales and expands the potential ethanol market by more than 600 million gallons annually.

The India biodiesel segment delivered $14.5 million in revenue on resumed Oil Marketing Company allocations, with the subsidiary continuing to target an initial public offering in 2026. Third-quarter operating loss was $8.5 million compared to $3.9 million year-over-year, while selling, general and administrative expenses increased 15.5% sequentially. Net loss expanded to $23.7 million from $18.0 million, though cash position improved to $5.6 million at quarter-end.

Aemetis stands to benefit from four major U.S. policy tailwinds accelerating demand for low-carbon fuels: California Air Resources Board's long-duration LCFS framework with improving pricing, Section 45Z production tax credits, California's adoption of E15 via AB30 expanding the addressable market, and ongoing state and federal clean-fuel mandates and incentives. These factors, combined with the signed EPC for MVR and fully monetized RNG pathways, support the company's focus on margin expansion, recurring credit monetization, and disciplined project financing through 2026. The company's valuation reflects this growth potential, with analysis indicating a range of $9.93 to $20.48 per share.